Chance of reaching a first payout
Depends on where the account is when you start counting. Simulated on real 2019–26 trades, about 1,900 starting points each. Bar = no extra slippage; the second figure adds 1 point of slippage a trade.
Fresh eval (just bought)13% · 10% with slippage · median 44 trading days
Fresh funded (before the buffer trade)33% · 28% · median 41 days
Funded past the buffer (floor locked)74% · 65% · median 25 days
Why it still works with 13%: an eval costs $150.50, a funded account that pays out returns up to $2,000 on the first payout and $2,500 on each one after. About 6 in 10 fresh evals fail on their first trade; that is priced in.